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Official Entergy-Commonwealth Nuclear Accident Plan for Cape Cod


Kurt Schwartz, Director of Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency, comments to the Barnstable County Regional Emergency Planning Committee on Oct. 3, 2012, Harwich Community Center
2012年10月3日 ハーリッチ・コミュニティセンターにて


I am not a scientist. So I m going to make some statements which are scientific conclusions.

I say that because as we approach nuclear preparedness planing, we assume for purposes of planning that there is going to be a release from Pilgrim.

I personally believe that it.... you know a release is a low probability event but it's a high consequence event. But for purposes of moving forward with planning let's just assume it's going to happen.

...within the 10 miles, we have evacuation plans. And they're built local, regional, state. So if we have a threatened or actual release of radiation we have a system to stand up emergency operation centers. We have a system to warn the public. and we have a system to evacuate. We have special plans around how to evacuate children out of schools and day care centers and camps and to move them to schools that are outside the EPZ(emergency planning zones). We have plans for how to direct cars to move out of the EPZ. We have bus routes that are designed where bus plans to pick up people who don't have their own transportation and how we get those people out of the EPZs. We have host centers outside the EPZ where we send people who don't have some place else to go. We have centers where we reunite parents and children. We have plans for how to distribute potassium iodide KI to people who may have been exposed to radiation during a release. So that all exists within the 10 miles. Now is the plans perfect?

Pilgrim-20M Map_1

No. We continue on a daily basis to tweek and sometimes upgrade our plans. We try to do it in partnership with the plants. Sometimes we work well with the plants on some issues and on some days we are butting heads with the plants. So it's not we I will tell you that we enjoy a pretty good relationship with the plant but we're not in bed with each other. Excuse the crude expression but you all know what I mean. And there are days when we push them and there are days when they push back on us. The plants fund........ the plants fund .....much of the planning work that takes place. They do that with direct payments to the communities and they do it with direct payments to the state emergency management agency.

That's what takes place within the 10 mile EPZ. I am well aware that if you fall outside of the 10 mile EPZ today, this is true not just just in Pilgrim but in most EPZs around the country, if you fall outside the 10 Mile EPZ you don't have the benefit, residents and communities, of any of that enhanced planning that takes place in sort of plant funded planning that takes place. If you did, we probably wouldn't be here today.

So let me talk for a minute about why that circle is at 10 miles and not at, for example, 20 miles. When we think about and plan for a release of radiation from a plant, we think about two very distinct dangers. One is a danger of inhalation. Inhaling radioactive materials that are airborne. So I'm going to talk about inhalation danger. We also think about and worry about a different danger which is an ingestion danger. Ingesting items that have radioactivity on them typically because the radiation has fallen from the sky out of the air and we now have radioactive material that is on the grass and plants and hard surfaces, whatever.


And radioactivity may be ingested by eating the tomato out of the plant. It may be ingested by the cow that is grazing on the grass. It may be ingested by the child who plays in the grass and then puts his hand, her hand in their mouth but any way in which the radioactivity radioactive materials can get into your mouth and be ingested. So we have inhalation dangers by breathing in radioactivity and ingestion dangers by consuming them. The inhalation danger is the danger we plan for the most and it is the one that we have to respond to the quickest.

If you have a release of radioactivity from a plant into the air, our first focus as emergency planners is to mitigate the consequences of inhalation. Now this is where the 10 mile EPZ comes in. The question is when radioactivity is released here into the atmosphere how far will that radioactivity carry in the air and at what levels? We know that the radioactivity can carry, and we're going to talk about it in a few moments, radioactivity and radioactive materials can move and carry for many many miles and well beyond the 10 mile EPZ. We know that's going to happen if there is a significant release. It doesn't necessarily happen with a small release but we certainly plan for the radioactivity to extend many miles out from the plant and what direction it is going to move with the prevailing winds. So if you are on the Cape and there's a release and the wind is blowing to the south to the south/southeast to the southeast you know east southeast east........it is moving towards you.

I have said to you that radioactivi...radioactive particles may carry many miles well beyond 10 miles from the site of the release but the key finding that the NRC bases this 10 mile zone on is that the levels of radioactivity drop fairly quickly and dramatically with both time and distance.

And the NRC studies supported by the studies that have taken place around Fukushima are that the radioactive levels..... radioactivity.... radio..... levels of radioactivity in the atmosphere diminish significantly and by about 6 miles those levels have dropped below the danger thresholds. Meaning that they do not present any immediate, imminent inhalation risk to the public.

Now I'm going to come back to ingestion risk and talk about 50 miles and what all of that means. But I am just talking about inhalation risk. So by 6 miles, the studies say the inhalation risk has dropped to a point where there is not a danger from inhalation poisoning. Now people ask the question, What happens if the wind is blowing at 40 miles an hour instead of 10 miles per hour? Because you know intuition would tell you, well, at 40 miles an hours it means it's going to get here much faster so that six mile thing doesn't make sense. Well, actually the science says that in the event of a release, the stronger the wind is blowing the safer we are. The wind, the stronger wind actually dissipates and diminishes the levels of radioactivity and that works to our favor.

The fast, God forbid we have a release at Pilgrim, the best thing that can happen to us is it takes place in a northeaster where it is raining in sheets and the wind is blowing at 40 miles an hour because rain, snow, fog, and wind are our friends in terms of bringing down the levels of radioactivity in the atmosphere. So the NRC says that at about 6 miles, that's the critical point.


The EPZ, the 10 miles, is meant to deal with the inhalation danger. Now if you're within..... if there is a release and you're within that area in which there is going to be an inhalation danger, meaning within 10 miles and is probably
less than 10 miles but we use 10 miles. If you're in the EPZ and there is a threatened or actual release, what do we do? What do we do as planners? What do we ask the public to do? What do we ask the public to prepare for?

There are two ways to mitigate the inhalation risk. One is to get outside, get outta Dodge, which is to move outside of the EPZ and the other and that....that by far is the best course of action if time and circumstances allow so as when we exercise our nuclear preparedness plans with our local EPZ communities as the responsible I typically as the state director am the person who make the decision-do we evacuate or do we not evacuate? and I do that based on recommendations that come to me. But if we can safely move people out of the EPZ, that's the decision we make.

So if there appears to be a likelihood of release and time allows we call for an evacuation. Now typically we don't look at evacuating an entire EZP. We look at the direction the wind is blowing and we do plume modeling and we evacuate areas that are within or close to the plume. So if we had a due south wind blowing and the national weather service was saying it was blowing at 15 miles an hour to the south and there is no likelihood that in the next 6 hours that's going to do a 90/180 degree turn to the north, as we would be looking at evacuating areas to the south but not
necessarily to the north.

But our first, our preferred response it to evacuate. If evacuation is not possible, either you know and why might it not be the best course of action- well if there is already a release in progress you know if we...if we go from the point where we get the call at MEMA that there is an emergency at a plant, if we go from a emergency thing we'd been notified of an emergency to an actual release in a matter of an hour, I mean in a sort of worst caste scenario, like that there probably is not going to be time to evacuate people before the release.

And once there is a release we don't evacuate people into the release. The best course (inaudible) that's just exacerbating the situation so in that case, we go to a shelter in place order. We tell people get inside, close your doors, your windows, shut off your air conditioning, HVAC units, remain indoors. The science says that sheltering in place significantly mitigates the inhalation danger. Is it as good as evacuating?

Obviously not, but those are the two very keys decisions that ultimately I as the director have to make if there is a release. Evacuate or shelter in place and we talk about evacuating out 10 miles in that immediate evacuation because what are we worried about?

The imminent urgent danger is the inhalation risk. If you are outside of this ten miles, we are not thinking about asking you to evacuate. So if you are on Cape Cod, and there is a release from Pilgrim, there not a circumstance that I am aware of in which as the director of MEMA I am contemplating calling for an evacuation of the Cape when you are.. if you're in Sandwich and Bourne at the closest you are about 13 miles or so from Pilgrim and at the farthest, well, you know, depending on which way the wind is blowing you are many, many miles away. So let me repeat that. There is not a situation in which we would be contemplating calling for an immediate evacuation of the Cape in the event of a release because you are far enough away that you are not in the inhalation danger zone.Now is that the end of the story? No, it's not.

I also said that there's an ingestion danger associated with the release. What happens over time depending on how long the release and how big the release we know that the radioactive particles are going to continue to move in the atmosphere and they may move for many miles before they settle on the ground or on surfaces on the ground.

・・・So the danger isn't that you are breathing in radioactive materials but all of those materials are ultimately going to settle. There is a longer .... there is an ingestion danger that is a danger that comes from much longer term exposure.

ビデオ 12.22から

...It does not come from having been in there for an hour, two hours, three hours, a day. It comes from, but there is a very significant and deadly risk from long term ingestion of radioactive materials.

So, if this were our incident, what would we have done as the state? In the immediate hours we would have worked to evacuate people that were within 10 miles to minimize the inhalation risk. Over the next number of days, we would have mapped this area and once we had identified this area we would then issue a relocation order and order anyone within this area to leave the area. And we would enforce that order.
なので、もし自分たちの所で事故が起こったとしたら、州として何をするべきでしょう? 事故後すぐには、吸入によるリスクを最小限にするために10マイル圏内の人々を避難させます。それから数日間は、放射能汚染を地図に起こし、地域を定めたら移住勧告を出し、その地区にいる人皆に立ち退きを命じます。

This is not an evacuation. An evacuation is an emergency quick get out of town order which says get in your car and get the hell out of town because there is an imminent danger. This is not an evacuation. This is a relocation. It is not urgent. We have the time to plan it and what we did in this drill and what we would do in real life is identify all the roads and major roads. We will work with local and state police and the depart of transportation. We would seal off all the roads in and out.

We would send people into these areas with protective clothing and help everybody relocate out. We would move animals and anything living we would move out. And the unfortunate reality which is what Fukushima faces today, is that this area may well be closed to anyone for years to come.











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